The recession is here - now what?
Im Angesicht einer weltweiten Rezession hat sich die Bundesregierung dazu durchgerungen ein weiteres, noch größeres Konjunkturprogramm anzukündigen. Dieses ist Milliarden schwer und hat das Ziel, die Wirtschaft vor allem durch staatliche Investitionen anzukurbeln. Auch Abgabenentlastungen werden erwogen, zum Beispiel niedrigere Tarife in der Einkommensteuer. CDU-Chefin Merkel will damit der Schwesterpartei CSU entgegenkommen, die seit langem niedrigere Einkommensteuern fordert.
Konkrete Programmdetails sollen zwar erst im Januar, nach dem Amtsantritt von Barack Obama be decided, however, indicated at the last several days already taken.
The Recovery Plan is to be promoted, especially road construction. "It is obvious that it makes everything in the infrastructure sector, what can be done quickly," said Angela Merkel in Mannheim. The prime ministers of the states should now build their planned road projects already completed, so construction or renovation can begin "early spring" . It should also be considered whether the call could be shortened for the projects. In addition, more research projects funded, Schulen modernisiert, Anreize für Häusersanierungen geschaffen und Internetbreitbandverbindungen auf dem Land voran getrieben werden. Das Kurzarbeitergeld sei bereits im November auf 18 Monate verlängert worden. "Jetzt müssen wir schauen, ob die Bedingungen für die Inanspruchnahme des Kurzarbeitergeldes schon ausreichen."
Die Bundesregierung steht gewaltig unter Druck. Das erste Konjunkturprogramm im Wert von rund 32 Milliarden Euro stieß auf Kritik aus Wirtschaft und Ausland. Es heißt, die Summe sei viel zu gering. Diesem Druck gab die Kanzlerin jetzt teilweise nach, indem sie ein zweites Programm oben drauf legte, das noch mal laut Spiegel 40 Milliarden Euro kosten wird.
Wirtschaftsexperten begrüßen die Maßnahmen der großen Koalition. „Die Förderung der Infrastruktur ist eine äußerst sinnvolle Maßnahme“ , sagt der Wirtschaftsweise Wolfgang Wiegard Spiegel Online . „Sie schaffen jetzt, da es nötig ist, zusätzlich Nachfrage, und früher oder später kämen diese Investitionen ohnehin auf den Staat zu.“
Andere halten die Investitionen in die Infrastruktur zwar für richtig, fordern aber weitergehende Förderungen, sprich Steuersenkungen. Rudolf Hickel zum Beispiel, Wirtschaftsexperte an der Universität Bremen, sagte: „Es is right and important that it even exists an economic stimulus program - because, strictly speaking, was the first no, but merely a collection of individual actions that would have given anyway. Now we must finally have the courage to put together a real stimulus package -. Even if it means borrowing "
think the jester that measures the
stimulus packages are certainly beneficial to the economy, but it is highly questionable whether they act in time. Infrastructure improvements are no doubt very good for an economy, but it takes some time to this positive effect occurs. Permanently but they are the right Way.
But the recession is coming shortly and is expected no later than directly in the new year in Germany fully take. This action by the federal government to be late. Germany now needs tax cuts to get back on its feet and to avoid a long-term crisis. Of course, the resulting debt, a large fly in the ointment, but there is no other way out of crisis. Had the federal government already begun with a reduction of debt, in the boom phase the economy, there would now have enough cushion to fund these reductions. But this is our government machinery has missed. Steinbrück saving measures came too late, even his predecessor would have had to do this.
now could even grab a derogation of the Basic Law, which allows the state of exception to take on more debt, as these investments - actually a security against the insolvency state. That would require the federal government to call out the disturbance of macroeconomic equilibrium. This situation arises when the balance, the so-called magic square , no longer exists. This refers to the relationship of price stability, high employment and foreign trade balance with a steady and adequate economic growth. However, should the government to the creation of such failure to demonstrate that the unusually high indebtedness is likely to allow their return to the macroeconomic balance.
The tax burden on the state of the economy has become in recent years, much too large. Especially the middle class, actually the engine of German economic in addition to the now ailing exports, suffers from high Steuern.Unternehmen surprised with fewer than twenty employees, the amount of money at the end of the year, flows into the pockets of the country and how little they themselves remain. The consequences are clear.
New investments, the formation and recruitment can be a lot lower Center stand no longer afford. Stagnation or even recession rather than growth. In the worst case threatens insolvency.
It must stay real just more money. This would strengthen the domestic economy and the middle class on its feet. Non-labor costs, including payroll taxes must be lowered.
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